Archive for November, 2008
US to recover huge 2H 2009 – Obama’s 2.5M Job creation will work
dear friends,
to God be the glory.
hope everyone made a profit in shorting usd/cad, as our first target of 1.22 (with intraday low of 1.21244) was breach. target of parabolic + double top is still intact at 1.12-1.14 within 6 months minus few days.
euro daily is respecting reversal level at 1.30 which is a good thing. my bias is still with the majors, oil and gold.
will upload more charts at the blog site including Dow daily, weekly and monthly and why i think equity longs can breathe and smile for awhile.
2.5M jobs by US pres elect Obama? Will it work? Say’s who? Not who but by “it”. Yes, 2.5M jobs creation is possible and i believe the man. Posted on the blog is the “it”. One chart. One chart, whispering, but with a strong voice.
Godbles us all always and forever.
be well,
hernan
PS. sorry chart of dow tomorrow. got an errand.
Add comment November 27, 2008
NewsL!tter Nov. 25
dear friends,
To God be the Glory.
Hope everything’s well and i hope everyone profited from gold and the major’s rally. we’re now on the 2nd day of the week and so far so good for the majors against the dollar. day 1 belongs to euro/usd and usd/cad on my books as these majors earn big pips against the green. the carries were expectacular as well. gold’s luster was back and still glittering as on this writing. im still positive bias for the majors/gold. no shorting for (me) for the time being and will be buying on dips. im a trader, thus anything can happen. i can change my bias in an instant, but so far im for the “most” that against the dollar.
posted on the blog is the monthly chart of oil. included was the key levels to consider base on the environment of highly emotional pattern, the parabolic. this is just a guide. but ive seen to many parabolics nowadays that i very much value its importance and accuracy – experience wise as these cannot be found in any technical analysis books (parabolic key levels and emotional spike theories).
another theory that i used was from the teaching of my mentor, judy sawyer, the wedge theory – which uses time element to predict when will the top and bottom will occur. if i got the time, will discuss it further in my blog. i think there’s one on the geocities site that has a wedge theory chart of gold.
Godbless us all.
be well,
hernan
Add comment November 25, 2008
NewsL!tter (Nov. 17, 21 & 23)
Sunday, November 23, 2008 11:42 PM ET
Dear friends,
To God be the glory always.
nice rally of gold coming from 700. as of this writing, there’s been a slight profit taking. been trading (with bias to long) 1-5 units (1-5oz) of gold since changing my bias. i still positive bias for the gold’s luster in the short term. be advice though that i have a pivot level to watch and i can shift my bias anytime of the day.
forex: crucial week is over. i need to see the majors do their thing and rally from here. we have a nice pip-run last friday, and early profit taking justthis morning.this week should be the major’s week. any sign of unfavorable weakness will negate all my expectations for a nice rally for the majors.
in the event we a rally on the majors. im pegging my “within the year” target for the following currencies:
aussie$ – 0.72 to 0.76, euro at 1.34 to 1.36, usd/cad 1.20 to 1.22 and ultimately 1.12 to 1.14 (within 6 months). caveat.
Godbless.
be well,
hernan
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Friday, November 21, 2008 12:07 AM ET
dear friends,
to God be the Glory.
Previously im 51% bullish sa gold, now its 60%. majors will have its day. last day for the crucial week for commodities and majors to take action whether to rally or not. we’ve seen some “sporadic leftover strength” of dollar earlier yet the likes like EURO is resisting revisiting the 1.24flat level. Next week, if there will be no major upside moves by euro et al, i’m shifting my bias to $ again.
Gold for the past days after hitting 700level is building momentum. it’s like a dejavu for gold when oil was being sold down and gold is building base (some time ago that move made more than a $100 run in 2days).im seeing it now the way gold is building momentum. something mysterious. anyway im long gold and very much short usd/cad (this pair is hard to catch). caveat.
Godbless all. Happy weekend to everybody.
be well,
hernan
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Monday, November 17, 2008 7:35 PM ET
dear friends,
To God be the glory.
I’m now finishing various charts that lead me to be 51% bullish for Gold. we also saw gold tested and broken the 722 level based on the small parabolic it formed which prompted a small selloff to 700.42 but did not touch the 600 level. This week is crucial for major currencies as well, i am 51% “dollar to weaken against most majors” for the time being . noted though that most majors is “figthing” whatever strength the green has.. or left. chartwise, the meanest dollar wave strength (3rd wave) have come to past, of which we experienced sporadic spikes afterwards. we might, albeit slim for now, that the majors (including oil and gold) will make a nice rally toward the year end. caveat.
charts will be uploaded at blog once finished.
God bless always.
be well,
hernan
Add comment November 25, 2008
Gold Spot Daily Nov. 24, 2008
Last friday, Gold rallied $55/oz and also broke the pivot level as shown in the chart. bullish sign but yet again as the long term chart of Gold 100oz still bearish, my being positive bias for the short term is limited to 60%. As long as gold is above the pivot level, im trading gold on a positive tone (buying on dips and no shorting). From its OCt 24 low of 682, Gold rallied 18% from today’s intraday high of $806.65/oz. A rally from low above 20% ($818) means short term reversal for GOLD. Caveat.
Add comment November 24, 2008
I am changing my bias
the dollar strength was spectacular. although im 51% in favor of the majors against the US dollar, it doesnt refrain me from trading using the system. currently im short cable but im watching it closely. i may reverse my position as deem neccessary. ive been bearish oil and gold since that parabolic occured. The $70-$80/bbl target for the parabolic that time was too far fetch when everyone else is so bullish about oil. much more the $40/bbl for oil (that time for 3 yrs) target was even laughable to think of. euro at 1.60 then was so strong that mentioning 1.27 as target for the parabolic curve raised eyebrows, and most often my email landed on junk folder. if there’s a lesson to learn from all of these, is that, as we all know, a trend is your lifesaver. it just that ive been amazed lately by parabolics. never did i imagined that once a parabolic curve is over, it can wipe out everything in an instant. but for now, chart wise, pointed that the meanest wave of the $ have ended. what we are seeing now are the SLS or ”sporadic leftover strength” of the dollar. the crb index is on its last leg downturned. usd/cad parabolic (i timed it wrongly on this one) is still valid. aud/nz pair made a reversal on the daily. these are unorthodox factors that i find more weight than the news we often heard.
i’m looking at the majors to have nice rallies year end couple with gold (and oil too) gaining back some of its luster.
Add comment November 18, 2008
