Aud/Nz Daily Chart June 8, 2009

S&P 500 and Aud/NZ Forex Pair Vbottom Comparison

S&P 500 and Aud/Nz Pair Comparison

AUD/NZ March 30, 2009

My entry to the guess the DOW contest

honestly, there’s no decent short term chart pattern i can zoom in, in order to “guess” where the dow at the end of the quarter. the weekly and the monthly charts are so darn ugly to see as well. The only defense of the dow is the double bottom (near 7,500 scenario (triple if 2002 low is added in the picture).The question at what level will the parabolic curve burst (which started at the low of 2002 to high of 2007, after the fact)will end must be address first. It is a big factor to determine in order to get a decent “guess” of where the dow will be. I have a theory though but to sum it all, “at what level will the dow close at the end of the quarter”. Honestly, i dont have a clue.

But within the period of 2009 though, basing on “emotional spike theory” and the “20% rule of low”, the parabolic burst ended last nov 2007 low.recovered 20% afterwards, determining the low and confirming the burst target. i would say within 2009, dow will climnb back to 10,200 the least. caveat.

note: unedited entry to the contest at www.ino.com  (http://club.ino.com/trading/2009/01/traders-blog-contest-for-january/)

 

 pls pardon spelling and grammar. many thanks.

will add chart later… need to go home early. for forex update, aud/nz turned bullish again, suggesting majors to rally big against the green in the days to come. early to tell though as i’m awaiting more signals, but i think we will see better major plays “kontra” dollar next week. gold will follow the majors of course. caveat.

Forex Activity for this week

I may refrain myself trading forex today or for the rest of the week. I may trade on a limited time window depending on my available time. i don’t feel comfortable looking at the charts for most majors. i got mixed signals, suggesting this week’s forex activity will be demoninated by emotional spikes and extreme volatility. I love trading the volatility but if i the charts doesnt give me a clue to its direction, i rather play it safe.

below is the aud/nz daily chart. this is indicator i use to determine the overall psychological perspective of the market and the behavior of the dollar. Last jan 9 (e.t. time) it turned bearish. usually this is a lead indicator (few days to a week) that something extreme may happen.

Here’s another mixed signal to the overall picture. EUR/USD daily made a bullish divergence few days back, that is price within the bollinger band yet rsi is below 50. It made a nice rebound after which. On jan 9 though it made another bullish divergence yet failed to mimic its previous signal. As of this writing, the pair is in the edge of a trend reversal.

EUR/GBP

This one turned into a full blown parabolic burst with target of 0.82. However, the band is a little bit wide and the rsi is in a support level, it may bounce back inside the band yet the trend is now negative for the euro against the pound. A long euro/gbp may be considered though if the rsi held back from its support level, comparable to what happened last oct.31.

Here’s the chart of GBP/USD.

Promising but fragile.

USD/Yen

caveat

AUD/NZ Dec. 11, 2008 Update

Chart is self explanatory. For traders, Use trendline at your discretion to protect profit.
Current trend is still up even if trendline violated as suggested by the BB and RSI. For those who have bought at the buy signal, you may use BB and RSI for your change of bias. To each is own, you know my stand, i’m a trader. caveat.

AUD/NZ Update

The triangle breakout’s target was achieved. The said level was proven to be a hard core resistance as aud/nz corrected slightly upon touching the said barrier. overall trend is still intact and bullish but nevertheless a trendline guide was drawn to protect profit to those who haven’t done so. caveat.

AUD/NZ Daily Chart – Buy Signal