News L!tter? (Hmmm…)

I discontinued making newsletter when somebody from a foreign brokerage house reminded me that …. (place your ads here). hehe

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Dear friends.
First, apologies on the previous analysis re: major dollar collapse within 2 weeks. the study was off by 2 weeks. only consolation was it came late than never. i posted some charts when euro and aussie triggered a buy signal on their daily charts but got a whipsaw signal on usd/chf on swiss intervention. over the weekend i studied some interesting patterns in the S&P. here’s a brief outlook…

“key level 797-809 for this week. if break, 950 in may09. analysis used are wedge theory, channel,grid, and vbottom patterns.
analysis void if key levels are not break within the week. time element is a big factor in this analysis. caveat.”

take care all and Godbless.

be well,
hernan

US to recover huge 2H 2009 – Obama’s 2.5M Job creation will work

dear friends,

to God be the glory.
hope everyone made a profit in shorting usd/cad, as our first target of 1.22 (with intraday low of 1.21244) was breach. target of parabolic + double top is still intact at 1.12-1.14 within 6 months minus few days.

euro daily is respecting reversal level at 1.30 which is a good thing. my bias is still with the majors, oil and gold.

will upload more charts at the blog site including Dow daily, weekly and monthly and why i think equity longs can breathe and smile for awhile.

2.5M jobs by US pres elect Obama? Will it work? Say’s who? Not who but by “it”. Yes, 2.5M jobs creation is possible and i believe the man. Posted on the blog is the “it”. One chart. One chart, whispering, but with a strong voice.

Godbles us all always and forever.

be well,
hernan

PS. sorry chart of dow tomorrow. got an errand.

NewsL!tter Nov. 25

dear friends,

To God be the Glory.

Hope everything’s well and i hope everyone profited from gold and the major’s rally. we’re now on the 2nd day of the week and so far so good for the majors against the dollar. day 1 belongs to euro/usd and usd/cad on my books as these majors earn big pips against the green. the carries were expectacular as well. gold’s luster was back and still glittering as on this writing. im still positive bias for the majors/gold. no shorting for (me) for the time being and will be buying on dips. im a trader, thus anything can happen. i can change my bias in an instant, but so far im for the “most” that against the dollar.
posted on the blog is the monthly chart of oil. included was the key levels to consider base on the environment of highly emotional pattern, the parabolic. this is just a guide. but ive seen to many parabolics nowadays that i very much value its importance and accuracy – experience wise as these cannot be found in any technical analysis books (parabolic key levels and emotional spike theories).

another theory that i used was from the teaching of my mentor, judy sawyer, the wedge theory – which uses time element to predict when will the top and bottom will occur. if i got the time, will discuss it further in my blog. i think there’s one on the geocities site that has a wedge theory chart of gold.

Godbless us all.

be well,
hernan

NewsL!tter (Nov. 17, 21 & 23)

Sunday, November 23, 2008 11:42 PM ET

Dear friends,

To God be the glory always.

nice rally of gold coming from 700. as of this writing, there’s been a slight profit taking. been trading (with bias to long) 1-5 units (1-5oz) of gold since changing my bias. i still positive bias for the gold’s luster in the short term. be advice though that i have a pivot level to watch and i can shift my bias anytime of the day.

forex: crucial week is over. i need to see the majors do their thing and rally from here. we have a nice pip-run last friday, and early profit taking justthis morning.this week should be the major’s week. any sign of unfavorable weakness will negate all my expectations for a nice rally for the majors.

in the event we a rally on the majors. im pegging my “within the year” target for the following currencies:
aussie$ – 0.72 to 0.76, euro at 1.34 to 1.36, usd/cad 1.20 to 1.22 and ultimately 1.12 to 1.14 (within 6 months). caveat.

Godbless.

be well,
hernan

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Friday, November 21, 2008 12:07 AM ET

dear friends,
to God be the Glory.

Previously im 51% bullish sa gold, now its 60%. majors will have its day. last day for the crucial week for commodities and majors to take action whether to rally or not. we’ve seen some “sporadic leftover strength” of dollar earlier yet the likes like EURO is resisting revisiting the 1.24flat level. Next week, if there will be no major upside moves by euro et al, i’m shifting my bias to $ again.

Gold for the past days after hitting 700level is building momentum. it’s like a dejavu for gold when oil was being sold down and gold is building base (some time ago that move made more than a $100 run in 2days).im seeing it now the way gold is building momentum. something mysterious. anyway im long gold and very much short usd/cad (this pair is hard to catch). caveat.

Godbless all. Happy weekend to everybody.

be well,
hernan

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Monday, November 17, 2008 7:35 PM ET

dear friends,

To God be the glory.

I’m now finishing various charts that lead me to be 51% bullish for Gold. we also saw gold tested and broken the 722 level based on the small parabolic it formed which prompted a small selloff to 700.42 but did not touch the 600 level. This week is crucial for major currencies as well, i am 51% “dollar to weaken against most majors” for the time being . noted though that most majors is “figthing” whatever strength the green has.. or left. chartwise, the meanest dollar wave strength (3rd wave) have come to past, of which we experienced sporadic spikes afterwards. we might, albeit slim for now, that the majors (including oil and gold) will make a nice rally toward the year end. caveat.

charts will be uploaded at blog once finished.

God bless always.

be well,
hernan

I am changing my bias

the dollar strength was spectacular. although im 51% in favor of the majors against the US dollar, it doesnt refrain me from trading using the system. currently im short cable but im watching it closely. i may reverse my position as deem neccessary. ive been bearish oil and gold since that parabolic occured. The $70-$80/bbl target for the parabolic that time was too far fetch when everyone else is so bullish about oil. much more the $40/bbl for oil (that time for 3 yrs) target was even laughable to think of. euro at 1.60 then was so strong that mentioning 1.27 as target for the parabolic curve raised eyebrows, and most often my email landed on junk folder. if there’s a lesson to learn from all of these, is that, as we all know, a trend is your lifesaver. it just that ive been amazed lately by parabolics. never did i imagined that once a parabolic curve is over, it can wipe out everything in an instant. but for now, chart wise, pointed that the meanest wave of the $ have ended. what we are seeing now are the SLS or ”sporadic leftover strength” of the dollar. the crb index is on its last leg downturned. usd/cad parabolic (i timed it wrongly on this one) is still valid. aud/nz pair made a reversal on the daily. these are unorthodox factors that i find more weight than the news we often heard.

i’m looking at the majors to have nice rallies year end couple with gold (and oil too) gaining back some of its luster.

crb index, gold’s small parabolic retest of 722-touching 600level, etc

dear friends,
To God be the glory. been awhile. hectic sked after we arrived from manila. the following have transpired when i was in manila.
1) US$ 3rd parabolic wave over
2) lots of emotional spikes occurred and have pierced tru key levels (posted before i left was the cable)
3) there was a hanging key level which pierced by emotional spikes on the dow at 10,200 and 10,700 that needs to revisited
4) i never have the chance to witness the climax of the meanest wave (3rd wave) last oct 24 and oct 27 because i was in manila, nevertheless my family and i saw lots of “artista” which is more memorable than the US index futures limit down last oct24 and the Philippine composite index’s trading halt (10% down).
that to name a few.
anyway, i saw my idol appearing on bloomberg again, mr jim rogers. and while being interviewed, on the background was the CRB index . this entice me check its charts. i believe the CRB index’s nightmare is nearing end. i’m posting the chart on my blog (somebody told me, i can make money blogging, so..there).
i posted gold’s short term parabolic as well, leading to a retest of 722 and possible a touch at the $600/oz level.
regarding crude, i have yet to check its charts as im done covering oil for now. but last time i take a look, its 3rd wave target have already been hit. if my memory serves me right, my last call on oil was to hit $87, a big flap, as oil tried to rally to $84-$85/bbl only.
hope you support my blog so that i can install this adsense from google and earn me a buck or two. many thanks. God bless us always.

be well,
hernan

Ayala to lead PSEi rally

dear friends,

uploaded is the sample chart of euro/usd with parabolic and emotional spikes notes. loaded as well is Ayala Corp (PSE: AC). i’m looking that AC will lead the PSEi rally for a possible double bottom scenario. caveat.

God bless always.

be well,
hernan

ps: thanks to melo for encouraging me to this blog thingy.

News L(!)tter – Spyfrat’s Call Shameless Newsletter (Delivered to your Mailbox, whether you like it or not)

dear friends,
this is history, we’re witnessing a one of its kind uncharted definition of emotional spikes and parabolic runs. this is a technical analyst dream of witnessing. this is the bluest among the blue pattern a trader can ever imagine. the strength of the dollar against the majors except yen is so enormous,sad to say this is a vicious cycle that huge margins are being called for. the 1st and 2nd waves of the dollar strength we’ve experienced few sessions back are nothing compare to this 3rd wave of spectacular dollar strength. on a parabolic and emotional spikes ive experienced, the 3rd wave is the most “hulk-alike” waves of all. and if the theory is correct, the 3rd is “last” of this vicious and most feared waves, and possible the last of the vicious cycle. there will be small or short waves coming but nothing is comparable to what we have seen on the first 3 waves. if the euro/usd wave count is correct, the parabolic target of 1.27 as mentioned before will
be the the 3rd wave’s end cycle level. as per euro/usd activity today, it did touch the 1.27+ level. few days back, ive mentioned we’re going to experiencing great volatility for 2 weeks. we’re on at that period now. these vicious parabolics and emotional spikes are not healthy as they distort the markets in general. as i always reminded, these are all short term in nature.
technical notes to consider: 1) if volatility will mellow down significantly next week, then the 3rd wave vicious cycle of the dollar is the last we’ve seen for now. 2) as everyone expects a fed rate cut, a flat forex activity is a good signal as well, that the 3rd wave is done and we might see flat dollar movement, with a little bias for the majors to rebound(euro.gbp.aud.chf.cad).
ill try to post some charts later. if time permits will upload this to my blog i made yesterday at http://spyfrat.wordpress.com

i try my best to upload the 3rd wave vicious cycle of the dollar. this is history. will probably print the chart and make a frame out of it

Godbless us all.

be well,
hernan

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