Archive for February, 2009
In overbought territory. Expecting correction.
My father in law’s hobby is to raise turkey. Unfortunately the havoc that typhoon Frank left was one of the worst in Philippine History. Mr. “Pabo” here is one of the six turkey remained in the aftermath. He’s the lone male survivor. That means, he’s got to work double time in chasing those 5 beauties. Darn.
since wednesday, i got divergences in the major’s daily chart, except usd/yen which materialized its target at the 94 level. the 982-987 level of spot gold acted as the 2nd squeeze barrier have been breach, thus ochestrated a fast strike of breaking the psycho $1,000/oz level. as of this writing, gold made a high of 1,006+ earlier. this is somewhat weird, because the wedge of us dollar index is again acting in line that of gold. for some time now, gold have been acting on its own and have long been neglected the moves of the dollar and most specially of oil. the decouple justify the heavy bombardment of the european and us equities, making both the dollar and gold strong. as said earlier though, divergences have manifested itself amongst the likes of the euro, aussie, cable, francs and the canda. as the majors seek an oversold level, their rsi’s have somewhat broke away from the normal mode by establishing relevant strength as price weakens. in short, for 2 days now, even though the price of the majors have been subjected to selling pressure, their strength indicator refuses to give in. If the wedge theory is correct, we might see the dollar collapse, same as gold breaking new high next week (end feb) til early march. Caveat.
although overall trend is still down, we have rebound in the making, and if the triangle is voided, a possible rally back to the low 1.30 level. however, since this is just a rebound on a major downtrend, if euro fails to deliver, meaning if it cant void the major wave down by just breaking the low 1.30s, then i’m afraid, the euro days are basically over.
on a worst case scenario, target is parity 1 to 1.06 as part of the overall downtrend cycle, that is being in a major wave down. caveat. Godbless always.
Yesterday the cable made a nice defense of its rsi footing base on the daily. The 1.41-1.42 level base have diverge on the strength reading, indicating that the pair is posing for rebound, then if momentum builds up, a nice rally. yesterday, the cable shows some resiliency compared to other majors. Aussie made a nice comeback from the lows as well, triggering a buy signal in the 15-man chart. caveat (forex signals are dynamic).