Reference Chart – PESO
A year ago we featured our peso analysis, its outlook of which your cuteness humbly predicted. Our January 14, 2013 scenario happened. Peso did a rounding cup, rebounded on the level we highlighted and target achieved and beyond. This all happened when even the biggest names on the industry, local and foreign foresee that the peso will strengthen further to 38 (even me thought of that idea too at some point).
Note though, we have our own shares of ridiculous piece of art as technical analysis is not an exact science. but this one, was a caviar used as spread in a hot pandesal and it tasted like chicken.
Last May 29, 2013 when PESO was still hovering trying to test 42, we project the 44 level target on the ground that it break on its 4-year downtrend line and was materializing a rounding cup bottom.
Two weeks later last June 11, 2013, when the peso breaks above 42, we drew a bigger scale of a 47 target based on a bigger rounding cup formation, with 50 even a likely candidate.
Yesterday we saw the peso at 45 level and as of this writing was 10 cents higher. We feel though that a pullback (peso will strengthen) is brewing and likely to test the 43 levels in preparation for a stronger upside. The possible scenario will be a pattern within a pattern. In this case an inverted head and shoulder inside a rounding cup bottom of which both are bearish patterns.
below is our peso-psei-gold combo piece.