Archive for March, 2011
Lots of cash
I’m expecting a bloodbath this April. The Big 4 will fall. The psei chart i posted yesterday said otherwise if your looking at a clean breakout. But i can’t explain what i’m seeing. It’s just there. Anyway, It’s just me so don’t get scared.
3.08*.0111=.0342 or 342m shares
shown above are simple arithmetic on why investors should not sell their shares to the tender offer @ 1.60
today’s closing price of dgtl is 1.56
edited: time 4:39pm
4.9B is worth for the tender offer for the minority, and the 74.1B is the total amount of pldt shares peg at 2,500 for the 100% stake of dgtl. my mistake earlier is that 51.1% was bought directly from JGS in the amount of 69.2B worth of pldt shares. so from my error, the 4.9B/74.1B = 6.61% which represent the share of minority in the deal (amount). so how come if the remaining float of 3.08B shares represent 48.90% of dgtl, its worth is only 6.61% to the pie.
the other computations are wrong.
i was thinking earlier, since mvp shell out 74.1B worth of pldt shares, he needs to somewhat get it back. fortunately for him, only 4.9B is cash.
now about the zero coupon convertible bond which according to the disclosure is worth 18.6B shares. was there a simple math how they arrived as such? say the bond worth 18.6B at par of 1 peso? if the computation then will be of peso and not shares, PLDT actually peg the price of its 51.1% at 74.1B – 34.1B-18.6B = 21.4B divided by 3.277B shares, and that’s around 6.53 pesos per share.
Start at page 53 of DGTL’s Sept 2010 disclosure says about their bonds. Please check http://www.digitel.ph/pdf/SEC17Q-2010Q3.pdf
Im no fundy so please bear with me. Also in page 66, they disclose their financial liabilities at 84.8B, of which bonds payable represents 27.26B.
so again if we use 27.26B worth of bonds and not the 18.6B shares, the amount paid to JGS will be 12.74B / 3.277B shares = P3.88/share.
still much higher to the crap 1.60 per share.
pls do correct me if this is crap as well. 😀
Saved by the deal. What seems to be an imminent drop back to 1600 level, a huge rally (emotional) have put that threat on hold. for now.